The Shifting Landscape of Organised Crime

Abstract

While organised crime has long been entrenched in Latin America, the spatial configuration of violence associated with it has undergone significant transformations in recent years. Homicide rates have escalated beyond traditional epicentres, spreading to countries once perceived as relatively safe. In Ecuador, the homicide rate rose by 429% between 2019 and 2024, largely driven by drug-related violence, while in Uruguay, 21% of homicides are connected to conflicts related to the illegal drug market. Beyond security concerns, organised crime undermines governance, erodes trust and constrains development. This article develops a mid-range analytical framework to explain these trends, linking criminal group fragmentation, institutional weakness and illegal market dynamics through the concepts of criminal governance and thick crime habitats. Using comparative case studies of Montevideo, Rosario, Guayaquil and Limón, it shows how organised crime adapts to varying contexts of institutional fragility and illegal market dynamics. The findings contribute to the refinement of existing theories of state–crime relations and highlight the emergence of new forms of criminal governance in urban and lower-violence contexts.